Those of us who haven’t forgotten the recent elections (and this includes some of those happy with the results as well as those who predicted a PSD win, were proven wrong and keep looking for a reason to save their reputation) are still somewhat surprised. I know I am. So while looking for a well laid out contrarian opinion, I discovered the blog PoliTichii, obstinately hanging on to a pro-PSD viewpoint after having [wrongly] forecasted a PSD win.

On second thought, I might not have the time to refute beyond what others have done in comments to these articles, only to present his (Cristian Banu’s) views.

Again, contrarian views are important for me at least, which is why I treasure them.

His main complaint is that the elections have still not been validated, 1 month after being held. He mentions the analysis done by two people (linked under the image). He claims that the elections were fraudulent and somehow that PSD was “in” on this fraud, in order to demolish Dragnea. But, says the author,

toate acestea sunt intuiții bazate pe calcule matematice și extrapolări

meaning “my ideas are probably BS and am not responsible for them”.

Back in May 14, while I was asking potential candidates questions, his prognosis was for a clear PSD win. On May 27 he calls the results “an extraordinary surprise”:

• we agree that half the PSD voted in the referendum and as such could be “co-opted”, but sadly the opposition cannot or won’t do it
• he talks about Codruta Kovesi running for president, which was never a valid option
• “Ponta will inherit the biggest chunk of PSD” – not happening
• CDR scenario – USR+ alliance with PNL with unique presidential candidate – possible, but unlikely

On June 14, he writes about USR fraud again and how the economy is the “replacement villain” for Dragnea. Except that the pensions law, unless changed, really is apocalyptic.

On July 5, discusses again PSD scenarios. In both he sees Ponta playing a role. The problem I have reading them is that I really struggle to see these as relevant or even possible ways for them to move forward. However, if Ponta ever goes back to the PSD mothership, that’s a sign that some PSD-ists read that blog.

The lack of “official finalization” in the elections dossier is worrisome, but the explanation that somehow PSD defrauded itself is highly unlikely. It’s not impossible that Dragnea, having been convicted of election fraud, served as a strong disincentive for PSD to go ahead with its usual vote fraud, whereas PNL wasn’t similarly hampered, but again, insofar as PSD is the governing party, that’s just extremely unlikely. It seems to me that the most likely explanation for the current state of affairs at BEC or whatever the “election authority” is called has more to do with the manifest incompetence and amateurism that is increasingly a synonym for PSD governance. It’s also possible that PSD tried to defraud the vote, but failed miserably (or didn’t do it enough) and that’s why they can’t finish the job. Regardless, it’s not the “smoking gun” that “PoliTichii” makes it to be.

One very important point we seem to agree on is that PSD represents a part of the electorate that nobody else wants or tries to court (thought the PNL results suggest otherwise). Perhaps without me noticing, PNL has expanded its “coverage” to include rural Romania, leaving the corporatists to USR.

The “politichii” blog is so far off the mark with its forecasts and commentary that it is mostly a blog of “politifiction”. And that’s useful and important, much like a dystopia, for it teaches us how not to analyze.

Sources / More info: pt-0627, pt-0514, pt-0614, pt-0527, pt-0705