I try to make sense of who voted for whom in this election, and especially who voted for PNL. Surprisingly for me, PNL managed to attract a majority of women / rural / “unoccupied” voters.

I haven’t followed Romanian politics closely, but it seems that the electorate is divided into a few tribes. Anyway, this is an idea I started explaining in the previous article, but lost it in results, facts and details.

1. usr

Their voters are the younger, more educated crowd, the kind of people who have left the country or if they stayed, part of them yearns to go. These people truly are the future of this country, and many of them are my friends. So I asked some of them why they voted, and what I heard is that “they are like me: guys who worked in multinational corporations”. I suppose other voters are just disappointed with both PNL and PSD and are tired of both. Even though they’re probably on the 3rd spot, their momentum and  enthusiasm are palpable. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that at least some of their voters voted for the first time.

A recent survey shows their voters to be 43% from what in Romania are “big cities” (over 200000 inhabitants), and 57% are men.

Given how new and somewhat “elitist” this party’s beginnings are, its performance is absolutely remarkable. They surprised in 2016 and managed to usurp mindshare again, this time as an “alliance”. Furthermore, had all Romanians been allowed to vote, USR would have likely gathered significantly more votes than PSD.

A lot of people came out of their shell to vote precisely because of Dragnea, but this will be less of a factor for presidential and parliamentary elections. I’d be very curious to learn if their voters include the vast majority of “IT security professionals” who are quite numerous in Romania.

In short, the USR Plus alliance managed a significant upset, beating their own projections.

2. psd

Their voters are rural or small-town, less educated and / or invested in a “socialist” government by virtue of working for the government or getting a pension. They are thus immune to documentaries such as Spiegel’s, showing how Dragnea hired his support staff in social services while they never performed the work the government paid them for (original, subtitled) – whether because such information doesn’t penetrate their bubble, or if it does, they willfully ignore it.

I feel for them and wish the alternative parties would have something to offer them as well; I also know it’s not going to happen and they’re left out of all other political menus.

Temporarily headless, this party will now attempt to “clean up its image” and defend its position until elections. They’ve never had a good image abroad, so losing the MEP election does not change much, but there will be some blowback, since their electorate might not fully comprehend that. It is entirely possible for this party to make a comeback at the upcoming elections once Dragnea is left behind. They (the power or PSD + ALDE vs the opposition summed up) carried 7 counties this time vs 36 in the previous (parliamentary) elections.

3. pnl

This party is centrist and benefitting mostly from its presidential connection (Iohannis was installed in the Cotroceni Palace by them). However, the USR rising star will ultimately take some votes away from them, unless they enter in an alliance of sorts. They’re also getting the votes of the older, well-off and more established Romanians, and that’s an increasing demographic. A newer survey (hn-survey) suggests that they have the most unemployed voters (although, who knows! – maybe in this booming, low-unemployment economy the well-off count themselves as “unoccupied”). Another surprising finding is that this party has the most rural voters (56%), followed by PSD (53%), and also 54% of its voters are women.

4. ctp

I have long supported the [intelligent, cautious] introduction of electronic voting, but was concerned that if PSD were to do it, they’d screw it up and cause even more serious problems than we’ve had with diaspora voting. USR had initiated a law in the Romanian Parliament, but PSD killed it.

There’s also a petition (below, declic-petitie) calling for the resignation of the Foreign Affairs minister Teodor Melescanu and Internal Affairs Carmen Dan, due to the disastrous organization of elections, but I doubt that they care or that’s going to happen. After all, the elections were funked purposely and they only followed the governing party policy (as mentioned in my previous article quoting the same CTP – “anti-vote party”).

5. partisanship

Recently, Dragos Pislaru (USR-PLUS) went on Antena 3 (a TV station owned by a corrupt “mogul” who spent time behind bars) and many people, some who may have voted for them, criticized him(b1-criticism),  causing him to claim they won’t go again (fb-pis). It’s like a Democrat going on Fox News, except I couldn’t find nobody to encourage that, the way Bill Maher does (rcp-votes).

I wrote extensively on partisanship and won’t do it again, but it’s worth noting that just as this A3 thing was about to unfold, I witnessed primary school friendships broken over USR/PSD fights that were at about the level where the friendships had started. Unless we engage those who think differently (or may seem like they don’t) we’re recreating Scanteia, as in Andries’s song.

6. book

Finally, I’ve discovered a book that interests me. It’s about the Romanian economy during the cold war and that’s something I touched upon in previous articles such as Pacepa & Dacia. However, the site where I found it for 70RON + shipping (12 in Ro) is very slow. I’ll have to see if I can order it straight from edituratrei.ro. This is mostly a “bookmark” so that I can find it later.

Now, I don't really know why the candidates didn't answer my questions, but I can venture a guess.

Sources / More info: hn-finalresults, hn-interactiv, declic-petitie, hn-sondaj, dctp-penali, rcp-votes, hn-pisgadea, fb-pis, b1-criticism, zrsti-pis, pdl-pis, rro-pis