Lipsa fortei de munca si migratia masiva  

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De cativa ani de zile, citim din ce in ce mai des despre lipsa acuta de forta de munca din Romania. De pilda, intr-un articol recent din BIRN- Romania seeks to bring workers home, Romania anunta ca isi va intensifica eforturile de a-si tine muncitorii acasa ca raspuns la lipsa din titlu. "At the moment we have a labor force crisis and we should make a common effort to keep workers at home," o zas Tariceanu dupa ce s-o-ntalnit cu reprezentantii guvernului roman si ungar in Sibiu, in sudul Transilvaniei. Din pricina acestor lipsuri (care, dupa ministrul economiei Varujan Vosganian, sunt constate in principal in industria constructiilor, industria grea si cea constructoare de masini), un lucrator in constructii castiga mai mult in Romania decat in strainatate.
Romania ar avea nevoie de inca 500,000 de lucratori dar 2 milioane de romani lucreaza in strainatate. Somajul a cazut de la 7% in 2003 la 5.2% sa sfarsitul lui 2006 si este aproape de 4% azi, conform datelor publicate de Banca Europeana pentru Reconstructie si Dezvoltare (EBRD). Inflatia salariilor (cum economistii numesc explozia/creterea rapida a salariilor) a fost mai pronuntata in sectoarele cu mana de lucru necalificata, unde este mai usor sa gasesti de lucru afara.

"In Romania, you see much quicker wage growth in the non-skilled sectors like hotels, restaurants and construction." spune Clemens Grafe - Europe, Middle East & Africa economist at UBS.
Cresterea spectaculoasa a salariilor a atins chiar 50% de la an la an in constructii. Scaderea brusca de 12% a fortei de munca inregistrata in 2002 s-a produs cand Romania a obtinut acces fara vize in Uniunea Europeana. Financial Times, preluat de MSNBC, precizeaza:
In Mr Grafe's view, wage convergence may remove the economic pressure that is driving migration flows sooner than many expect. He said: "We believe that the speed with which labour costs change will change completely. Migration is driving wage movements. In countries that have seen major migration, wage increases have speeded up dramatically."
Historically, eastern Europe's wage levels had grown relatively slowly. "In countries like Poland, we expect 12 or 13 per cent wage increases. It used to be 2 to 3 per cent [before large-scale migration]."
Dupa cum se vede, migratia masiva, cauzata indeobste de diferente acute de salarizare si implicit nivel de trai, are un efect pozitiv pentru toate partile: pentru tarile gazda, inseamna salarii mai mici in servicii care se traduc eventual in preturi mai mici pentru consumatori; in tarile sursa, cresterea masiva a veniturilor pana la o apropiere de cele din tarile gazda.

Tari care au intrat in Europa inaintea noastra, s-au confruntat cu aceleasi fobii si nevroze. "Polish Plumber" a devenit chiar un simbol al xenofobiei francezilor inainted de referendum, si mai tarziu a fost adoptat intr-o campanie turistica poloneza incununata cu succes. In final, polonezii s-au adaptat cu brio si au fost acceptati si chiar doriti. Un articol in Economist arunca o oarecare lumina asupra acestui paradox (i.e., The brain-drain cycle and Fear of foreigners, binefacerile emigrarii masive pentru toate partile).
THE Oxford Belfry is a typical modern British hotel: big, bland and strikingly lacking in native staff. Among the multinational workforce, the cheerful, omnipresent Poles stand out: at the front desk, in the bars and restaurants, cleaning and (while reading an economics textbook) supervising the gym and pool.
“It's the work ethic. Many British people think the service industries are about servitude,” complains John Cotter, a senior manager. Since Poland joined the European Union last year, his staffing headaches have largely been over. “We are inundated with applications from Poland,” he says. Indeed, the new reservoir of good, cheap labour is a boon for many employers in Britain, Ireland and Sweden, the only old EU countries that have fully opened their doors to workers from the new members. But now some central European countries, especially Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, are worried that too many of their best people are leaving for higher pay and a better life.
Nu este nimic nou in acest gen de migratii (evreii in Israel, germani in Germania), cu exceptia poate a legalitatii si a motivelor strict economice mai degraba decat politice. Ca multe fenomene asemanatoare, si acesta este probabil subestimat in statisticile oficiale, dar asta nu mira pe nimeni. Ce supara tarile sursa este pustiul lasat in urma. Intregi zone rurale par depopulate, cu exceptia batranilor, copiilor si - intr-o mai mica masura - a femeilor, care insa sunt si ele multe plecate. Raspunsul la aceste plangeri este departe de a fi linistitor:
the era of migration is likely to be temporary. “We have ten years before the demographics kick in,” says Mr Mansoor, “after which there just won't be the young people to emigrate.” That is not wholly good news: most central and east European countries face the nasty combination of a rich-country age structure with a poor-country economy. But it highlights the biggest cause of migration now: a big pool of unemployed, underpaid or under-appreciated people for whom going abroad makes a lot of sense.
Este adevarat deci ca initial, disparitia fortei de munca are un efect de soc asupra economiilor respective, dar pana la urma, acestea se adapteaza, si efectul net este clar pozitiv. Multi dintre migranti se intorc acasa, cu bani, retele de cunostinte si o noua viziune despre cum ar trebui sa functioneze o societate, o economie, serviciile guvernamentale. In plus, aceste migratii pot balansa unele excese: in tarile ex-comuniste sunt mult mai multi doctori pe cap de locuitor decat in tarile occidentale, iar scaderea masiva a ratelor de natalitate au disponibilizat de asemenea multi invatatori. Articolul incheie intr-un ton optimist:
For money isn't everything. Mantas Adomenas, a star Lithuanian classical scholar, studied at Oxford and Cambridge in the 1990s, writing a doctorate on “Plato's reception of the pre-Socratic philosophers”. But after eight years as a Cambridge don, he went home, taking a 75% pay cut to teach at Vilnius University and campaign against corruption. His friends, he says, chide him as a big fish in a small pond. He responds by quoting Plutarch, who 20 centuries ago refused to join the brain drain to Athens “lest my small city should become even smaller.”

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