Lumea arde si eu mi-am pus sablon nou. Au aparut o gramada de probleme dar, din pacate, nu am timp sa le rezolv. Asa ca merg inainte, urmand sa corectez problemele in cateva zile, cand voi avea mai mult timp. Pan-atunci, sa ne-atintim privirea-n lume.
1. Economistu' dezbate
Economistu' a gazduit o dezbatere cu Stiglitz despre interventia guvernamentala in economie. Desi dezbaterea s-a-ncheiat, e un prilej excelent de a arunca un ochi la ce se mai intampla in lume. Mi-ar place sa descriu dezbaterea din Economist pe larg, dar pe langa ca putini stiu despre ce-i vorba, si mai putini sunt interesati de subiect - si nici timp nu am. Asa ca voi discuta cateva evenimente mai importante. Totusi, cei interesati in dezbateri s-ar putea sa se bucure sa afle ca dezbaterea curenta este despre costul educatiei universitare.
2. Alegerile Canadiene
Acum cateva zile au avut loc alegerile federale in Canada. Eu am votat la inceputul lunii, in prima zi de advance voting, ocazie cu care am constat o inovatie: trebuia sa produci un act de identitate, pentru prima oara. In related news, unii oameni au inceput sa-si incuie usa de la intrare. Alegerile au produs rezultatele asteptate: conservatorii au luat niste scaune de parlament de la liberali (care in America de Nord sunt de stanga), iar leader-ul liberal a fost silit sa demisioneze. Partidul Liberal se confrunta cu un leadership crisis - nu reusesc sa gaseasca un leader, si asta se reflecta in rezultate teribile. Iata si cateva clip-uri care explica despre ce-i vorba in alegerile din 2008.
3. Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett a-ndemnat investitorii sa cumpere acum, cand este oferta la stock-uri, dar nimeni nu se-nghesuie:
This is the text of an opinion piece written by Warren Buffett and published in the New York Times on Friday, October 17, 2008:
Buy American. I am. By Warren E. Buffett The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month - or a year - from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: "Put your mouth where your money was." Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
Cine este Warren Buffett am mai spus si voi mai spune. Desi stirile economice nu sunt imbucuratoare si recesia are sanse mari sa devina depresie, cel care cumpara cand toata lumea vinde si vinde cand toti cumpara ajunge miliardar. Asta face de cateva decenii Oracolul din Omaha si, iata, cand incearca sa-i invete p-altii, nimeni nu-l asculta. In plus, bursa este forward-looking, ceea ce inseamna ca prevede ce se va-ntampla cu economia. Cand economia va da semne ca-si revine, bursa va fi fost deja in crestere.
4. Chinezii acuza USA pentru prabusirea finantelor mondiale
Chinezii sunt foarte bine pregatiti pentru o recesie, economic vorbind. Totusi, unele estimari considera ca este necesara o crestere de cel putin 7% pentru a preveni revolte sociale in China. Este greu de zis daca vor reusi. Dar, ca de obicei, cand economia nu merge, se poate stimula nationalismul si xenofobia, ceea ce probabil se va intampla in intreaga lume. In timp ce liderii mai multor tari se-ntalneau in Beijing sa discute si ei discutii, presa chineza (care reflecta de obicei gandirea de partid si de stat) a publicat articole criticand dur modul in care administratia americana a gestionat economia.
"The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realize that the United States has used the U.S. dollar's hegemony to plunder the world's wealth," said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University.
Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington's sole concern had been protecting its own interests.
"The U.S. dollar is losing people's confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organization, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance," he wrote.
Cele 27 de tari EU si 16 ASEM s-au confortat reciproc dar foarte departe nu cred c-au ajuns. Dac-am inteles bine, hop si Curtea Constipationala acolo.
5. Asasinarea lui Obama
Obama a reusit sa se impuna in atentia publicului cum putin au facut-o vreodata. Se bucura si de suportul multor republicani moderati care sunt atat de nesatisfacuti de Bush, McCain si Sarah Palin incat au trecut in tabara adversa. Susan Eisenhower, nepoata presedintelui american care a tras semnalul de alarma in privinta "complexului militaro-industrial", a criticat dur alegerea Sarah-ei Palin si il sustine pe Obama inca din Februarie. Collin Powell, cel care a vandut Natiunilor Unite versiunea Bush cu Iraq-ul atomic, il sustine si el pe Obama. Desigur, acestia nu sunt singurii sustinatori, dar nu-i nici o surpriza ca NYT de pilda il sustine de asemenea pe Obama, context istoric in care se alfa pe partea opusa a Economistului.
In acest context, dementa paranoida a lui Joe Biden este ingrijoratoare. Intr-o conversatie "cu usile inchise" cu reporterii, Joe Biden a fost inregistrat spunand ca la cateva zile dupa alegerea lui Obama, el (JB) crede ca "Obama va fi testat cum a fost testat JFK". Asta-i mult mai teribil venind de la JB decat de la oricine altcineva, dat fiind ca nici JFK nu se afla in termeni buni cu VP-ul sau, LBJ, care a devenit la randu-i unul din cei mai prosti presedinti americani. Si iarasi, la scurt timp dupa ce JB face aceste declaratii, FBI aresteaza niste ciumpalaci care complotau asasinarea lui Obama. Talambii cu pricina erau foarte departe de a incepe atentatul, dar miscarea lor starneste valva si este greu de zis cum va influenta votul.
Poate ca rolul VP-ului este de cheerleader, adica sa se zbata, sa faca figuri si sa spuna ceea ce candidatul la presedintie nu poate spune. Sarah Palin e mult mai sloboda la gura, iar anil dash are o analiza superba a limbjului ei.
Daca Obama va fi asasinat va fi vina lui. Orgoliul sau imens l-a impiedicat s-o aleaga pe Hillary vice-president. Ar fi avut si alte probleme cu o astfel de nominalizare, dar Biden e prea gura-sparta si inst(-l)abil.
Stirile 6-10 vor urma cat de curand...
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